Long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) had already made energy transition and decarbonization efforts a national priority. However, Russian aggression heightened the urgency to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and accelerate the shift toward sustainable energy sources. This pivotal moment not only reshaped energy policies but also underscored the strategic link between energy security and national sovereignty, forcing the region to rethink its approach to sustainability and resilience.
The imperative of the Russian threat and energy independence
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine profoundly disrupted Europe’s security balance and triggered a severe energy crisis. This situation exposed the heavy reliance of European countries, particularly in the CEE region, on Russian natural gas. In 2021, over 40% of the European Union’s imported gas came from Russia, but this share fell to about 8% in 2023, thanks to increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States and Gulf countries. Diversifying supply sources, facilitated by infrastructure such as the Baltic Pipe and LNG terminals, was crucial in compensating for the drop in Russian imports. CEE countries had reduced their energy dependence on Russia, lowering the share of Russian gas imports from 51% in 2021 to 19% in 2022.
The challenges of a carbon-heavy energy mix
The CEE countries, particularly Poland, have historically relied on energy mixes that were coal-dominated. In 2023, 61% of Poland’s energy production still came from coal—a significant drop from 95% in 2000 but still the highest proportion in the European Union. Behind Poland, the Czech Republic (40%), Bulgaria (29%), and even Germany (27%) continue to rely heavily on this resource. However, the energy transition is already underway in several countries in the CEE region. Areas like Eastern Wielkopolska in Poland, once marked by significant coal activity, now aim for carbon neutrality well ahead of national deadlines. Many nations in the region have also seen notable reductions in fossil fuel usage and have set timelines for phasing out coal.
Progress in renewable energy
Some CEE countries are making rapid progress in transitioning to renewable energy. Latvia, with 42.1% of its energy derived from renewable sources, ranks among Europe’s leaders, followed by Albania (41.4%), Montenegro (39.9%), and Estonia (37.6%). Other countries, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, have also made significant advances in recent years. In Poland, for instance, the share of renewable energy rose from 6.9% in 2004 to 15.6% in 2021, while in the Czech Republic, this figure grew from 6.8% to 17.7% over the same period. These advancements highlight a growing momentum across the region, demonstrating that even countries historically reliant on fossil fuels are capable of substantial progress when the dual imperatives of sustainability and energy security converge.
The Polish Example
Poland exemplifies efforts to diversify and modernize its energy mix. The country has set ambitious goals, including launching its first nuclear power plant in 2026, with the first reactor—ranging between 1.0 and 1.6 GW (gigawatts) in capacity—scheduled to be commissioned by 2033. Concurrently, plans for small modular reactors (SMRs) are also being developed to accelerate the energy transition. In renewable energy, Poland aims to develop offshore wind capacity of 5.9 to 6 GW by 2025. Poland’s offshore wind development could significantly reduce CO2 emissions, enhance energy security, boost local economies with job creation, and align the country with EU climate goals. Electricity generation from micro photovoltaic installations also experienced significant growth, doubling in 2022 compared to the previous year. These are small-scale solar power systems, often installed on residential rooftops or small businesses, that allow individuals or communities to generate their own renewable energy. Finally, Warsaw plans to build 2 GW of low-carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030, most notably through electrolyzers powered by offshore wind farms.
The European dimension and upcoming presidencies
At the European level, CEE countries play a central role in shaping the common energy agenda, particularly through the rotating presidencies of the EU Council. Hungary, set to hold the presidency in the second half of 2024, and Poland, taking over in the first half of 2025, will have the opportunity to promote the green transition and strengthen European energy security. However, for Poland, national defence and security remain the priority in the context of the war in Ukraine and uncertainties surrounding U.S. foreign policy. Nevertheless, Warsaw places EU energy independence at the heart of its program while emphasizing a just transition for regions most affected by the gradual coal phase-out.
Central and Eastern European countries are making progress in their energy transition despite significant challenges related to their energy mix and historical dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine acted as a catalyst to accelerate these efforts. Through ambitious national policies and their role in the European Union, the CEE countries—and Poland in particular—are poised to become key players in the energy transition and the strengthening of European energy security. Their success will not only shape the region’s future but also serve as a critical example of how geopolitical challenges can drive transformative change toward a sustainable and secure energy landscape.
By Ronan Concoran
December 6, 2024
