What has happened? And what are the implications?
Following the German federal election in November 2021, the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany), the pro-business FDP (Free Democratic Party), and the Greens formally agreed to form the traffic light coalition, cleverly named due to the parties’ colours. This alliance marked the first time the CDU/CSU (Christian Democrats) party was not in government since their first term in 2005. The coalition collapsed on November 6, 2024, almost three years after its formation, following incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ dismissal of finance minister Christian Lindner. As Lindner is the leader of the FDP, cabinet members of the FDP subsequently resigned. The ministers were: Marco Buschmann, the Minister for Justice, and Bettina Stark-Watzinger, the Minister for Education and Research, interestingly enough, the minister of transport, Volker Wissing, left the FDP to stay in office. The collapse of the coalition thus placed the FDP into the opposition, with the SPD and Greens keeping a two-party minority government.
One might ask: why was Lindner dismissed?
Economics. This answer is rather apparent regarding Linder’s former position as finance minister and the ideological position of the FDP, an economically liberal party favouring privatisation and promoting the free market. In comparison, the SPD and the Greens, on the centre-left of the political spectrum, share similar views promoting government spending for social policies and the green transition. However, the ideological differences in the coalition went beyond just economic policy. There was disagreement on many topics, such as climate change, social services, and budget planning, which resulted in many instances of gridlock within the government.
While there was disagreement on many issues, the match in the powder barrel was a new economic policy that Christian Lindner proposed for the governing coalition in early November. The main goals of the policy were to cut public spending— including actions against climate change and creating new tax cuts. Lindner’s proposal was unsurprisingly incompatible with the position of the SPD and the Greens. On November 6th, Scholz asked the president of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to dismiss Lindner. Later that day, Scholz delivered a message to the press, officially breaking the news to the public. In his address, Scholz said the dismissal was done to “…avert damage to our country”. Before Lindner’s dismissal, Scholz proposed an economic plan to reduce energy costs and support Ukraine, but the former finance minister, per Sholz: “…showed no willingness to implement our proposals”. In the same address, Scholz announced that he would seek a vote of confidence in January to have elections in March, 6 months earlier than planned. The finance minister was officially dismissed on November 7th, and the FDP moved to the opposition in the German Bundestag.
A vote of confidence is a vote that the ruling government can hold to seek the approval of the members of parliament. In this case, approval means that the members of parliament both support the people in authority and agree with their actions. The current German minority government aims to hold a vote of confidence on the 15th of January to establish whether or not the majority of MdBs (Members of the German Parliament) support the government. If the vote is successful, the current German government will continue its work until elections are held at the end of September. However, the most likely scenario is that the vote is unsuccessful, paving the way for snap elections in March. The vote is almost guaranteed to fail, as the current government does not hold a majority in the parliament. Furthermore, the date, 15th of January, has come under scrutiny as several opposition parties want an immediate vote, leading to an earlier election. In a public poll conducted by broadcaster ARD, 65% of Germans want an earlier snap election, while 33% support the chancellor’s plan.
With mounting pressure, Scholz showed openness to moving the vote of confidence to an earlier date. On November 12th, a leading representative of the CDU/CSU, the SPD, two members of the Green party, and President Steinmeier met. The decision was reached to move the vote of confidence to an earlier date and hold the snap elections on February 23rd, 2025. The new date is a compromise between the two factions. The CDU/CSU wanted an earlier vote and subsequent election to capitalise on their gains following the government drama. At the same time, Scholz argued for an election in March to give the election authorities time to organise. On the same day, the decision was reached for Scholz to present the vote of confidence in writing on the 11th of December, with the Bundestag voting on the 16th of December. This plan aligns with a February 23rd election date, as the Chancellor has 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag and then 60 days until the snap elections have to be held.
As the vote of confidence is predicted to fail, the question is: what will the next government coalition be in Germany? According to the polls, the CDU/CSU is currently leading, with the AfD (a far-right populist party) in second place and the SPD in third. As the AfD has grown due to the government’s commotion, one cannot help but wonder if the AfD will be part of the coming governing coalition. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the AfD will find itself on the side of the government; Friedrich Merz of the CDU/CSU has ruled out working with the AfD, and thus, their options become limited for potential coalitions. Due to the size of the CDU/CSU, the party will most likely be part of the ruling coalition, and its leader, Friedrich Merz, would become the next chancellor of Germany. The only way in for the AfD is unprecedented growth from their 2021 results, in which they won around 10% of the vote.
As Germany falls into a prolonged period of uncertainty, it comes at a time when Europe faces plenty of challenges: the election in the United States and the implications of a possible trade war, the future of Ukraine, and the continued rise of far-right populism. The two leading nations of the EU, France and Germany, face political uncertainty which could impact the European political situation. In times when political polarisation and culture have shaped elections in other states, around 75% of Germans want serious and stability-focused politics. Although the turmoil in government has strengthened the opposition parties; the AfD or the BSW (the populist left-leaning party) are most likely unable to take advantage of the situation. The more pressing question is how the CDU/CSU will act in the post-Merkel era and how their policies will/would affect the EU, the war in Ukraine and transatlantic relations.
By Axel Nordanfors Thorsson
December 20, 2024
