On the 27th of March 2022, following a series of homicides committed by criminal gangs, the Salvadorian government and its president Naybik Bukele declared a state of emergency. What followed was the suspension of several constitutional rights and mass arrests of suspected gang members. Under the name of La Mano Dura (The Iron Fist), the state of emergency carries on to this day. El Salvador, a traditionally crime-ridden state, made use of the state of emergency to lower crime rates drastically. Since the initial declaration, President Nayib Bukele has received widespread praise for drastically reducing gang-related violence. Some even dubbed it “El milagro Bukele”—the Bukele miracle. The region of Central America is infested with high rates of organised crimes— this includes high figures of homicides, gang-related violence, and extortion. While Mano Dura has received criticism in Western media due to Bukele’s treatment of prisoners and the suspension of civil liberties, it is the opposite in Central America. The success of Mano Dura has garnered attention and admiration in Central America and, to an extent, Latin America because adequate measures for dealing with organised crime are bound to gain traction in neighbouring states.
“There are 660 million Latin Americans who are seeing what is possible with clear common-sense criminal procedures” -Gustavo Villatoro, Security Minister.
At 37 years of age, Nayib Bukele became Latin America’s youngest head of state. El Salvador has been politically divided since the end of the 1979-92 civil war, but Bukele’s young age and novel perspectives promised a fresh start. His freshly founded party, Nuevas Ideas, ended 30 years of two-party control of the country, which had been alternating between the right-wing alliance (ARENA) and the leftist group (FMLN). Nuevas Ideas is a “big-tent” party, not subscribing to a particular ideology. Further, the party always follows the wishes of its leader, namely Bukele. Two years after the initiation of Mano Dura, his popularity has soared, with even Bukele’s political opponents admitting they feel objectively safer in the country.
Bukele has become one of the world’s most popular heads of state, branding himself as the “world’s coolest dictator” and a “philosopher king”. At 43 years old, he has remade a nation that once had the highest rates of murder in the world. In 2024, Bukele was easily reelected, with approval ratings of around 90 per cent. Ruling under a state of emergency since 2022, Bukele has taken measures to dismantle democracy. For example, Bukele and his supporters dismissed high-ranking judges and installed loyalists in the courts, enabling him to bypass a constitutional restriction and successfully campaign for a second term. These activities align closer to an authoritarian leader than a democratically elected figurehead, but Bukele has taken these actions with broad public support. Not only do his policies grant him the popularity he needs, but the president also has a significant internet presence on social media, which assists him in cleansing public opinion with propaganda videos. This branding creates a unique image for Bukele, blending a sense of coolness with a touch of authoritarianism.
Bukele’s success has sent shockwaves through Central America’s political landscape, impacting most, if not all, countries in the region. Two prominent examples of this regional political shift are Honduras and Belize. While other regional states have experienced shifts within their political dialogue, none have implemented Bukele-esqe policies to the same extent as Honduras and Belize.
Honduras
With a population of around 10 million and sharing the longest border with El Salvador, Honduras is a country located in the east of Central America. While El Salvador and Honduras are different in size and population, they share similar criminal histories in the sense that they have both had huge problems with organised crime. In the same year as El Salvador, Honduras implemented their government crackdown. In the same vein as El Salvador, their crackdown was a reaction to massive gang-related massacres and shootings. President Xiamara Castro implemented a state of exception in December 2022, primarily affecting the capital, Tegucigalpa, and the second-largest city, San Pedro Sula. After numerous extensions, the state of exception has been implemented in over half of the country’s municipalities. Today, the state of exception still rages on, and the government has announced the creation of a new 20,000-capacity mega-prison to support the ongoing crackdown. Surprisingly, these policies are a complete U-turn from the president’s electoral promises. During Castro’s campaign, she vowed to combat organised crime by implementing anti-corruption initiatives and a community policing strategy. Further, the government has doubled down on its mano dura strategy, with Castro claiming that the state of emergency has achieved: “significant improvements in the security of our country.” However, these claims stand in contrast to the statistics provided by ACLED, which show that the crackdown has only caused a shift in where the gangs operate in the country. While the rate of homicides has dropped by a small fraction, the rate of reported extortion has gone up.
Belize
As a former British colony on the northeastern coast of Central America with a population of around 400,000, Belize had not conducted any widespread policy changes since El Salvador initiated its state of exception until 2024. In 2024, Belize initiated government crackdowns on gang-related violence. In June 2024, Belize declared a state of emergency and led to the arrest of nearly a hundred people. The emergency was initially implemented for 30 days but was extended to 90 days. “Law-abiding citizens” would not be affected, said Belizes Prime Minister Johnny Briceño, justifying that this would allow the crime to dissipate. It would grant law enforcement the authority to search residences without warrants and hold suspects for a maximum of 90 days, allowing them to conduct thorough investigations. Chester Williams, the police commissioner of Belize, echoed the prime minister’s sentiment and said that the crackdown was necessary to restore law and order. The police officer praised the crackdown’s similarity to Bukele’s model in El Salvador.
“You think that Bukele is the most influential world leader for no reason? The state of emergency is something that many countries in the region are looking at because they have seen how effective it has worked in El Salvador, and every government wants their people to be safe” -Chester Williams, police commissioner.
Belize and Honduras are only two examples of El Salvador’s effect on regional politics. However, they demonstrate several trends within Central America. Bukele’s policies don’t subscribe to a specific ideology. Honduras and Belize, the states that have implemented similar crackdowns to El Salvador, have centre-left/social democratic party affiliation. While harsher government policies tackling organised crime may be a usual characteristic of the centre-right/right of the political spectrum, this is not necessarily the case in Central America. Therefore, the issue of security politics goes beyond the traditional left/right political spectrum, which we are accustomed to. Its importance is present regardless of their political affiliation, and the influence of Bukele’s policies is widespread. In these particular cases, authoritarianism and seizure of power transcend the political left/right spectrum.
By Axel Nordanfors Thorsson
March 25, 2025
