On February 28th, 2022, mere days into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine submitted its application for membership to the European Union. Four months later, Ukraine—alongside Moldova—set a new record for the shortest time between applying and being granted the status of a candidate country to the EU. Now that the country is officially progressing toward membership, Ukraine’s approach to domestic and especially international politics will necessarily be shaped by the expectations and requirements placed upon it. At the end of March, a month that saw doubt cast over the United States’ allyship with Ukraine and a subsequent European reaffirmation of support, President Zelenskyy stated that he will not enter into any minerals agreement with the United States that “could endanger” Ukraine’s bid to join the EU.
This is not only Zelenskyy’s personal position, but one that he is constitutionally bound to since amendments were made to the Ukrainian constitution in 2019 which stipulate that the President of Ukraine is the “guarantor of the implementation of the strategic course of the State to acquire full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.” The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, overwhelmingly voted to pass the amendments, which included an addition to the Preamble “confirming the European identity of the Ukrainian people and the irreversibility of the European and Euro-Atlantic course of Ukraine.”
Washington’s most recent proposal for a Ukraine-U.S. minerals agreement includes terms that could grant preferential treatment to American companies and conflict with a strategic partnership discussed between the EU and Ukraine in 2021. As a candidate country, Ukraine is required to gradually align its policies toward third countries with the positions held by the European Union.
The process of becoming an EU member is known as the accession process, and it is divided into several stages. Once an application has been submitted, the European Commission puts together its recommendation, which is provided to the European Council. The European Council consists of the heads of state of each of the EU’s member states, and it has the authority to grant countries candidate status through a unanimous vote. After being recognized as a candidate country, the groundwork is laid for accession negotiations, the most time-consuming part of the process toward membership. On average, it has taken current members four years.
There is, however, no predetermined timeline for accession: Sweden advanced from applicant to member state in three and a half years, only outpaced by Finland, whereas membership for Malta and Cyprus took around fourteen years. Some countries have been on the candidate list for even longer than that: Türkiye originally submitted its application in 1987 and was subsequently granted candidate status in 1999, but following a period of democratic backsliding in the country, the Council decided that accession negotiations had “effectively come to a standstill” in 2018. Presently, there are nine candidate countries to the EU including Ukraine, but the pace of accession for a particular country is not necessarily affected by the progress of other candidates. The EU’s position—as laid out at the commencement of accession negotiations—is that the pace of negotiations with Ukraine will depend on the country’s progress in satisfying the membership criteria, keeping in mind “the Union’s capacity to absorb new members.”
In order to join, countries must satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria: in summary, candidates must be robust democracies with independent judiciaries; be market economies that can integrate effectively with the European Single Market; and be compatible with and adherent to the overall aims of the Union. These requirements have been operationalized through the creation of six thematic “clusters” whose chapters span areas such as the justice system, agriculture, the finance sector, and education. The Fundamentals cluster, pertaining to judicial and administrative reforms, is the first one to be opened, and the last one to be closed at the end of the accession process.
In terms of these fundamental reforms, Ukraine was advised to pay “particular attention” to reforming its judiciary, combating corruption, and protecting and ensuring equal treatment for national minorities.
Speaking at a press conference held in Kyiv in February this year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke positively of Ukraine’s progress and suggested that the country may be able to achieve membership before 2030.
On March 18th, Sweden’s Minister for EU Affairs and other top diplomats representing Denmark, Finland, and the three Baltic States signed a joint letter obtained by Politico urging Brussels to accelerate Ukraine’s accession process, explicitly referencing von der Leyen’s February statement. The Ministers made calls for the first cluster to be opened “as soon as possible” and for all clusters to be opened by the end of 2025, which is consistent with Zelenskyy’s stated ambitions.
No clusters have yet been opened, as Hungary poses a significant obstacle both to opening and later to closing clusters, which requires a unanimous vote by member states. While Hungary previously allowed for Ukraine to be designated a candidate country in 2022, and for accession negotiations to commence last year, Orbán has repeatedly issued vehement objections against Ukraine joining the EU, citing economic concerns, and has been stalling the opening of clusters for months.
At the same time, European leaders have been expressing optimism about a fairly rapid accession process, and internal conditions to move forward are otherwise fairly promising. On the first of January, Hungary’s controversial presidency of the Council of the EU—separate from the above-mentioned European Council—came to an end, with concerns expressed about its chosen slogan “Make Europe Great Again” and Orbán’s visit to Moscow mere days after Hungary assumed the role. Presidency of the Council rotates between Member States on a six-month basis and allows the country in charge to set its own agenda and priorities. Poland currently holds the position, with its key priority being security. On the first of July, the office will be assumed by Denmark, another country that is strongly supportive of Ukrainian accession.
Ukraine’s accession pace is intended to be almost entirely dependent on their own rate of progress, but there are additional obstacles for the country to contend with on the international stage. Within the European Union, Budapest stands alone in opposition to Ukrainian accession. The unanimity requirement, however, enables them to prolong the process significantly. 2025 is set to become an important year for the Ukraine-EU relationship, especially with broader geopolitical shifts taking place in other parts of the world, but it remains to be seen how tangible those developments are.
By Sabina Rameke
April 15, 2025
